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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Gold price is expected to touch 4200, the eighth round of voting failed to pass, and the risk of a long-term US government shutdown has increased." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (October 15th, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,163 per ounce. On Tuesday, the price of gold once again hit a record high of US$4,179.47 per ounce, due to market expectations. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month and intensified trade tensions have ignited investors' risk aversion; U.S. crude oil traded around $58.73 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a huge oversupply in 2026 and continued trade tensions.
Canadian manufacturing data in August, Federal Reserve Governor Milan gave a speech, and many European officials spoke.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors digested mostly positive quarterly earnings reports from major U.S. banks, speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and the continued escalation of the trade war.
After U.S. President Trump’s remarks about easing trade tensions, the S&P 500 index turned from rising to falling. A number of major U.S. banks announced strong results, and the investment banking business performed well, driving the S&P 500 Bank Index to rise.
Wells Fargo closed up 7.15%, the largest one-day percentage increase since November 2024; Citigroup rose nearly 4% after both banks announced third-quarter profits that exceeded expectations.
JPMorgan Chase raised its full-year www.xmkacen.com interest income forecast, and Goldman Sachs' quarterly profit also exceeded Wall Street expectations, but the stock prices of the two banks fell by about 2%. BlackRock's assets under management hit a record, reaching $13.46 trillion, and its stock price rose more than 3%.
Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management, said that the market is trying to judge how the situation will evolve. If the Trump administration decides to escalate tensions again, the current market valuation is too high and it will be difficult to withstand the impact of measures such as 100% tariffs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) that the U.S. labor market was still in a weak state of "low hiring and low layoffs" in September, but the overall economy "may be more robust than expected."
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.16% to close at 6644.31 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 0.76% to close at 22521.70 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.44% to close at 46270.46 points.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by the consumer staples sector, up 1.72%, followed by the industrial sector, up 1.17%. Walmart shares rose 5% after the retailer announced a partnership with OpenAI to allow customers and Sam's Club members to shop directly through ChatGPT.
Rising industrial stocks supported the Dow. Caterpillar shares rose 4.5% after JPMorgan raised its price target.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025, saying that tariff impacts and financial conditions have proven to be milder than expected, but warned that if the trade war escalates again, it may significantly drag down global output.
Gold prices rose above $4,100 on Tuesday to hit a new record high, as market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month and intensifying trade tensions ignited investors' risk aversion.
Spot gold hit a record high of $4,179.48. U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed up 0.7% at $4,163.40 an ounce. Gold prices have surged about 57% so far this year.
The rise in gold prices has been driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, strong buying from central banks and inflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale currently expect gold prices to rise to $5,000 an ounce in 2026. Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said that rising trade tensions, the continued U.S. government shutdown, and market expectations for further easing of policy by the Federal Reserve are all supporting higher gold prices. The global "de-dollarization" trend may push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce by the middle of next year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) that based on the data we currently have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago.
Spot silver fell 0.9% to US$51.86 per ounce, having hit a record high of 53.60 during the session.The U.S. dollar was helped by the same factors as gold's rise and tight supply in the physical market. Platinum fell 0.3% to $1,640.76 an ounce; palladium rose 3.2% to $1,521.50 an ounce.
Oil Market
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, closing 1.5% lower, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a huge supply glut in 2026 and continued trade tensions.
Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5% to close at $62.39 a barrel. U.S. crude oil fell 1.3% to close at $58.70. Both contracts hit five-month lows.
The IEA predicts that the world oil market will face a larger surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day next year as OPEC+ producers and www.xmkacen.competitors increase production while demand remains sluggish.
On Monday, the monthly reports released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and oil-producing allies including Russia were less pessimistic than the IEA's view. The report stated that as the OPEC+ alliance continues to increase production as planned, the supply gap in the oil market will narrow in 2026.
However, executives at oil majors and top trading houses said they expect global oil markets to tighten in the medium to long term, recovering from short-term weakness.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said that recent trade tensions will also become a pressure point for crude oil.
The dollar fell against major currencies such as the Swiss franc and yen on Tuesday as trade tensions flared again, while the euro strengthened after the French government proposed suspending a landmark pension reform.
The US dollar against the Swiss franc was at 0.801 Swiss francs, down 0.37%; the US dollar against the Japanese yen was at 151.71 yen, down 0.37%.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said the market was caught off guard. People originally wanted to believe that trade tensions had eased. But obviously, no.
Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street, said, "I think what's happening now is that the market doesn't believe this is going to be a long-term problem, especially given the history of the past year starting in April."
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