Wonderful introduction:
Life requires a smile. When you meet friends and relatives, smiling back can cheer up people's hearts and enhance friendship; accepting help from strangers and smiling back will make both parties feel better; give yourself a smile and life will be better!
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Global Treasury Bond Yield Divergence, Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange Short-term Trend Analysis on October 14." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.54%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.85%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 1.11%. Germany's DAX index fell by 1.07%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.31%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.89%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.94%.
⑴The 10-year U.S. bond yield is at 4.013%, showing a significant premium over major developed countries, with the spread over German bonds reaching 141.4 basis points, and the spread over Japanese bonds widening to 235 basis points. ⑵ The yield on British government bonds ranks first among developed markets, with the 10-year yield at 4.592%, 57.9 basis points higher than U.S. bonds, and the 2-year bond yield 40.1 basis points higher than U.S. bonds. ⑶European bonds show gradient differentiation within themselves, with France’s 10-year yield reporting at 3.435% and Italy at 3.418%, representing a premium of 83.7 and 81.9 basis points respectively over German bonds. ⑷Germany, as the benchmark for the Eurozone, has a 2-year yield of 1.918% and a 10-year yield of 2.599%, both of which are at global lows. ⑸ Japanese government bond yields continue to be at the bottom, with the 2-year maturity at only 0.891% and the 10-year maturity at 1.663%, reflecting its ultra-loose monetary policy environment. ⑹ Australia’s yield curve is extremely steep, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.245%, a premium of more than 80 basis points over the 2-year yield, indicating that the market has strong expectations for inflation. ⑺In terms of short-term interest rate spreads, the 2-year U.S. bond yieldAt 3.485%, only the United Kingdom and Australia can match it, and European currency countries are generally more than 150 basis points lower. ⑻ The global bond market pattern highlights the differentiation of monetary policies. The high yields in the UK and the United States are in sharp contrast with the negative interest rates in Europe and Japan. Capital flows are facing reallocation pressure.
⑴British government bond futures rose to a high of 91.99 today, the highest level since August, but stopped just before the key technical resistance level of 92.00. ⑵The current price is only one step away from the 92.15 gap formed on August 11. If it can break through, it will open up new upside space. ⑶ The support below is in turn at the 91.39 gap level and the 91.00 psychological mark. The low of 90.43 on October 9 forms an important line of defense. ⑷The 10-year British bond yield faces two levels of support, 4.57% and 4.55%, with the 4.644% gap above forming technical resistance. ⑸ The interest rate difference between the 10-year government bonds between the UK and Germany remains at a high of 206 basis points. Trend reversals occurred at this level in July and September. ⑹ Strategically, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for a clear breakthrough signal. The current position has been closed at the 92.53 platform on June 10. ⑺Technical aspects show that the market is at a key decision point. Breaking through 92.15 or falling below 91.00 will determine the subsequent direction.
The Swiss Federal Administrative Court on Tuesday revoked the Swiss financial regulator FINMA’s March 2023 order to cancel Credit Suisse’s additional tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments, saying that the move lacked legal basis. The court held that the contractual conditions for cancellation had not been met and that the legal provisions cited by FINMA were too vague or unconstitutional to justify cancellation.
Mario Oliveira, Angola’s Minister of Telecommunications, www.xmkacen.comrmation Technology and Social www.xmkacen.communication, said in Luanda on the 13th that the Angolan government encourages Chinese www.xmkacen.companies to further expand investment in the country’s infrastructure construction and interconnection fields, and will continue to promote the digital transformation of the corporate sector to create a good environment conducive to investment and cooperation and promote long-term economic development.
⑴ Analysts at ING Group pointed out that continued political uncertainty will make it difficult for the euro to achieve an effective rebound unless the U.S. dollar weakens significantly due to negative U.S. macro data or tariff policies. ⑵ French Prime Minister Le Corny was re-appointed days after his resignation, and the budget plan he proposed will directly determine the political fate of Thursday's no-confidence vote. ⑶ If the French government collapses again this week, the euro will not be able to get any boost from the escalation of the trade dispute. ⑷ Analysts warned that if tensions show signs of easing, the euro against the dollar may further test the 1.1500 mark. ⑸The euro has currently fallen 0.2% to $1.1547, having hit a two-month low of 1.1540 earlier, showing a continued weakness. ⑹Under the dual pressure of political risks and external environment, the trend of the euro is subject to the double attack of domestic budget deadlock and the evolution of international relations.
⑴ www.xmkacen.commerzbank analysts pointed out that although Turkey’s current account situation has improved significantly, the lira’s depreciation trend will continue. ⑵Turkey’s current account surplus reached US$5.46 billion in August, setting a record for the highest monthly surplus on record. ⑶ During the same period, securities investment showed a www.xmkacen.com outflow of US$662 million, reflecting that international capital is continuing to withdraw from the Turkish market. ⑷ It may face further pressure on capital outflows in September, mainly due to political uncertainty caused by judicial rulings against President Erdogan's opponents. ⑸The improvement in the current account is mainly due to tightening monetary policy, but the capital account is highly sensitive to political noise and is constrained. ⑹ Frequent market fluctuations lead to intermittent positive data that cannot effectively stabilize the exchange rate, and the lira continues to be under pressure. ⑺The dollar-lira exchange rate rose 0.1% to 41.7991, having hit a record high of 41.8430 last Friday. ⑻ Political factors and capital outflows form a vicious cycle, and the lack of structural reforms makes it difficult for the lira to obtain sustained support.
⑴The Japanese government bond yield curve steepened significantly on Tuesday. The breakdown of the ruling coalition caused political uncertainty, and the end of the cooperative relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party led to various possibilities for government reorganization. ⑵The three major opposition parties are discussing jointly nominating a prime ministerial candidate against the Liberal Democratic Party's Takaichi Sanae, but whether they can reach a consensus before the special session of Congress on October 21 remains uncertain. ⑶If the Japan Reform Association and the Liberal Democratic Party form an alliance, they will control 231 seats in the House of Representatives, far more than the joint seats of other opposition parties. ⑷ The political deadlock ensures that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates before the new government is established. The OIS market's expectation of the probability of raising interest rates within the year has dropped from 63% to 49%. ⑸ Affected by this, JGB strengthened across the board within the 15-year period. The 10-year futures rose 0.43 points to 136.33, hitting a high of 136.47 during the session. ⑹ Ultra-long-term bonds weakened due to concerns about the 20-year auction, and the 30- and 40-year yields rose by 4 basis points, but bargain hunting emerged in time. ⑺The Nikkei Index plummeted 1,241 points to 46,847 points, a drop of 2.58%, as risk aversion drove bond market buying. ⑻ The exchange rate market fluctuated simultaneously, with the US dollar against the yen at 151.82, reflecting a significant deterioration in risk appetite.
EUR/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1560, a decrease of 0.08%. Pre-market in New York, (EURUSD) price has fallen further in recent intraday trading, breaking below support at $58.40, a level we had anticipated in our previous analysis, while a major bearish trend dominates the short-term and is trading along the trend's support trend line. Although the Relative Strength Index has reached oversold levels, there is still a negative trendSignal, showing the strength of bearish momentum.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3268, a decrease of 0.48%. Before the New York market opened, (GBPUSD) price rose slightly in the last intraday trading. As it was trading below EMA50, it was subject to continued negative pressure. At the same time, the relative strength indicator showed negative signals, which reduced the possibility of a price recovery in the short term. In the short term the main bearish trend dominates and the price trades along the trend line.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4117.64, an increase of 0.17%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices have experienced some volatility at recent intraday levels, a natural move to gain some bullish momentum that could help break through the resistance at $4,130, which represents where we expect it to be, pris is trying to move away from its overbought status on the relative strength indicator, especially with the short-term major bullish trend predominating and trading along the trendline, with negative signals emerging from there.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 50.653, a decrease of 3.09%. As resistance held steady at $52.50 before the New York session, silver prices spent the final session lower, collecting gains from previous gains in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that could help break through the resistance. The price is trying to unload its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially with the emergence of negative signals, which www.xmkacen.comes as the primary bullish trend dominates as well as trading along secondary trendlines on a short-term basis.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 58.050, a decrease of 2.42%. Crude oil prices deepened their losses in recent intraday trading before the New York session, falling below the $58.40 support level, which was the expected target in our previous analysis. In the short-term, the main bearish trend dominates and the price trades along the support trendline of this trajectory, while the Relative Strength Index has emerged with negative signals, showing bullish momentum on volumes despite reaching oversold levels.
Citigroup (C.N) said on Tuesday that the www.xmkacen.company's revenue in the five major business segments exceeded Wall Street expectations, driving total revenue to grow 9% year-on-year. Citi pointed out that its markets business, investment banking business, services, wealth management and U.S. retail units all set third-quarter records. The performance of both equity and fixed-income traders exceeded analysts' expectations, generating a total of US$5.6 billion in revenue, an increase of 15% year-on-year. The www.xmkacen.company's expenses rose 9%, mainly due to costs related to an agreement announced late last month that involves Citigroup selling a stake in Banamex ahead of its listing. www.xmkacen.compensation and benefit expenses also rose. Fixed-income trading revenue reached $4 billion, up from $3.6 billion a year earlier; equity trading revenue was $1.5 billion. The www.xmkacen.company said that the scale of its market sector's prime brokerage business increased by 44% year-on-year, reaching a record high
ING Bank analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that France's continued political uncertainty means that unless the US dollar weakens significantly due to US macroeconomic or tariff news, it may be difficult for the euro to rebound. Le Corny, who was reappointed as prime minister just days after resigning, will submit budget proposals that will determine whether he survives a no-confidence vote expected on Thursday. Pesole pointed out: "If the government collapses again this week, the euro may miss any potential benefits."
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) on Tuesday reported a surge in quarterly profits of more than 37%, benefiting from rising investment banking advisory fees and traders profiting from active markets. As www.xmkacen.companies restart mergers, acquisitions and listing plans, Goldman Sachs's prediction of a "deal-making year" has become a reality. Investment banking revenue rose to $2.66 billion in the third quarter, www.xmkacen.compared with $1.87 billion in the same period last year. The growth was mainly driven by a 60% surge in advisory fees. According to Dealogic data, the total value of global M&A transactions in the first nine months of this year exceeded US$3.43 trillion, of which nearly 48% came from the United States. The average size of global and U.S. M&A transactions during this period was the highest since 2015, consistent with Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon's prediction last year. Goldman Sachs participated in underwriting a number of high-profile IPO projects this quarter, including design software www.xmkacen.company Figma, Swedish financial technology www.xmkacen.company Klarna and space technology www.xmkacen.company Firefly Aerospace.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Global Treasury Bond Yield Divergence, Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange Short-term Trend Analysis on October 14". It is carefully www.xmkacen.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless or boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created the wonderful life we have today.live. I will try my best to organize the article.